Pr 17:20-21 Listen to advice and accept instruction, and in the end you will be wise. Many are the plans in a man's heart, but it is the Lord's purpose that prevails.
Everything that has gone on around us recently has left us reeling like punch drunk prize fighters in the ring. I have read everything I could lay my hands on in order to try to make some sort of sense from all the uncertainty. I hadn't felt so helpless and dreadful of a future of constant pain since the 70's when Jimmy Carter lived in the White House, interest rates were 18%, cars were backed up at the gas pumps due to rationing, and the President's hillbilly brother was promoting Billy Beer. Good old Jimmy had a way of taking problems the nation was facing and, rather than leading with decisiveness and solutions, giving us his view that all we had to look forward to was more of the same and worse to the point of making everyone want to jump out of a window somewhere. I know I did. Fortunately, it was on the first floor. I was sure glad to see him and his hang dog politics go.
Just as I was shell shocked for a time, I am sure many in this country are asking "What happened?" and "What do we do now?". If history is to serve us like it did under the spell of Old Jimmy, we need to realize that, barring any other major catastrophes, things will get better over time. I asked myself, when we are daily bombarded by the news, why didn't we see this economic meltdown coming? I believe the answer to that question lies in the role of news reporting agencies. They are there to sell, not provide real insightful news reporting. They therefore focus on short sighted sensational events rather than providing a reliable source of knowledge and understanding of the world around us. For that reason, I am purposefully staying away from the news. I find it depressing. Just like always, the sky is falling for some and not for others. I understand that we are experiencing economic problems. All I have to do to understand that is to look at our retirement account that is worth almost half of what it was just a short nine months ago. Since that is gone, my positive nature tells me I need to focus on the half that is left to try to understand how best to protect it from further disappearing. Many other average Americans approaching retirement age are finding themselves in the same boat. Let's examine some alternatives together that I have seriously considered:
1. Sell everything and buy gold. In the past, our government has made it illegal for citizens to own gold during difficult economic times and have confiscated it, replacing it with paper money at a value determined by the government. This didn't apply to collector's gold like gold coins. The difficulty with owning gold coins is that the coin value is often determined by a grading system that is hard for the average investor to understand. A coin that is inappropriately graded can be worth much less than an investor might think. Storage is also a problem with owning gold. What bothers me about buying gold is that I don't like basing my life's decisions on fear. I have to admit that I own a small amount of gold in my safety deposit box at the bank, but not very much. If the government took it it wouldn't kill me.
2. Buy real estate. I could see the real estate bubble coming. Houses were being bought and sold over and over again and the prices were climbing. Each time a house changed hands, the real estate agents were adding their 6% to the cost of the house along with excise taxes and closing fees. I talked to realtors who were selling the same house 8-10 times over the period of a couple of years. A $200,000 home had to sell for $215,000 - $220,000 just to cover the realtor fees and costs. That increased the price each time the house turned over and kept the price of housing going up much faster than inflation. A house turned over 8 times in two years would have to have sold for $370,000 just to pay realtor fees and closing costs on that one home. It was like a government sponsored and guaranteed Ponzi housing pyramid scheme. Why wouldn't banks loan whatever the customer wanted? The loans were backed by the full faith of the US Government agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The last sucker to buy was the one who really got stuck when the house of cards began to crumble. Coupled with lenders who were often loaning over 100% of the value of a home with such creative financing that a couple could pay higher and higher prices they couldn't really afford, and you had the perfect storm for a housing disaster. What might have otherwise been an economical down cycle with a soft landing, became a major economic crisis as the leverage that took us up, began to multiply its effect on the economy on the way down. Just like the housing balloon went bust, I believe that another financial bomb looming in our future is a credit card meltdown. As things get tough, more and more people are putting consumable living expenses on credit. As they begin to fail to make minimum payments, they will start defaulting on their loans. Who will bail them out? You guessed it. We will? I'm not trying to preach gloom and doom. I just think it is a good idea to realize that there are other potentially big problems out there that we need to consider. As banks feel the pressure from unsecured credit card defaults, they will begin to tighten credit. This will cause further defaults as credit card borrowers aren't able to continue to charge their cards and get more cards to charge consumer purchases. As purchasing slows down, jobs will be lost, people will continue to buy less and less and the economy will suffer as a result.
I'm not sure that most real estate has bottomed out yet. This, along with large down payments now being required by banks, makes this a difficult place to bet your future. If renting, I would suggest continuing to rent for awhile longer. If you own a home and don't need to or have to sell it, hang on to it. After all, everyone still needs a place to live. If you do have to sell, remember, although you are selling in a down market, you will also be able to replace the home you sell with a home being sold in a down market. As more and more jobs are lost, families and friends may have to bite the bullet and move in with one another to share expenses. After all, that is the way our families used to get by during lean years. Just as happened in the past, it won't last forever.
3. Keep money in cash or stuff it in a mattress. This approach might seem prudent to some, but the truth of the matter is that, due to inevitable inflation, cash becomes worth less and less until it is worthless. When the government prints money up like it is all free, it has the effect of making your dollars worth less. As an example: Suppose you have an after tax dollar you earned making a product. In a perfect world, you would trade that dollar for something you need that somebody else produced or you would save it. Now suppose, the government prints up two dollars and gives one to your neighbor. Then they hire a government employee to make sure your neighbor isn't working and thus undeserving of the dollar he was given. The only one that has made something that adds to the economy and can be sold for money is you. When you go to the store to buy something produced by another taxpayer, your dollar will purchase 1/3 as much since you are now competing with your neighbor and the government worker for the same goods and services that neither of them had anything to do with producing. As inflation climbs, you will be able to buy less and less with what you have stuffed in the mattress. Plus somebody might steal it or you might forget where you put it.
4. Invest in stocks and bonds. As hard as it may seem, this is probably still the best bet for keeping up with inflation so long as it is done right. All companies are not going to go broke and their stock prices will return over time. The secret to investing is best summed up as a balanced combination of Time, Dollar Cost Averaging, Diversification In Many Funds That Aren't Actively Traded. It kind of goes like this. Over time the market will adjust. If I continue to put a fixed amount into the market, I will buy more stock when the market goes down and less when it goes up. If I buy well diversified index funds, I can sit on them while the market takes time to shake out the winners and losers and they won't cost me the fees I would be charged if I hired someone to actively trade my account. Forget about your neighborhood Edward Jones advisor. He will just lose your money by churning your account to make his fees. Learn about Index Funds that aren't actively traded like those in the Vanguard family of funds. Buy them through a discount broker like Scottrade. An index fund invests in many companies so that the overall risk is reduced.